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Chinese discourse frames Modi’s China visit as a strategic move to expand India’s influence and assert its autonomy amid shifting global dynamics.

PM Modi’s China visit, after seven long years, attracted much attention in China, where people debated whether the sudden positive turn in China-India relations is a temporary adjustment or a strategic choice based on the fundamental interests of both countries and shaped by the changing times. The prevailing opinion was that Modi's decision to visit China is not only a China-India affair, but a key step in his grand, multi-dimensional pursuit of “strategic autonomy”. This trip aims to gain more strategic space and influence for India within the complex dynamics of the great power competition between the United States (US), Russia, and China through enhanced engagement with Beijing.

The prevailing opinion was that Modi's decision to visit China is not only a China-India affair, but a key step in his grand, multi-dimensional pursuit of “strategic autonomy”.

Chinese observers believe that PM Modi's eager visit to China is not really a breakdown in US-India relations, but rather a shrewd display of “leverage diplomacy”. PM Modi, they argued, is capitalising on the competitive dynamic between China and the US; so by engaging with China, he is sending a clear signal to Washington that India is not a pawn, but a “global power” with an independent strategic will, capable of maintaining working relationships with both countries. This gesture is intended to increase India's leverage in defence, technology transfer, and trade negotiations with the US, preventing it from being on the defensive in US-India relations.

It is noted that despite close US-India relations, significant differences remain between the two sides on issues such as trade, tariffs, energy transactions with Russia, and arms purchases. The US views India as a "quasi-ally” and expects it to align closely with the American position, while India insists on its status as a "global power" and refuses to be reduced to a subordinate role. Modi's China visit is intended to reaffirm his stance on “strategic autonomy” and, through re-engagement with China, demonstrate India's ability to “play both sides” and maximise its interests in a complex geopolitical environment.

On the other hand, the Chinese side notes that even as US-India relations continue to deepen, India still regards Russia as a time-tested "strategic support" ever since the Cold War days. Chinese commentators acknowledge that India-Russia relations are more stable than China-India and China-Russia relations. It is argued that India seeks a balance between the US and Russia, hedging against the US on one hand, while using its strategic relationship with Russia to offset any possible closer alliance between China, Pakistan and Russia, thereby safeguarding India’s security interests.

The US views India as a "quasi-ally” and expects it to align closely with the American position, while India insists on its status as a "global power" and refuses to be reduced to a subordinate role.

In the Chinese assessment, the Modi government's foreign policy strategy is to pursue a vision of a “multipolar world” that is not dependent on any single superpower. India's strategic relationship with Russia provides “strategic depth” to hedge against both the US and China, ensuring room for manoeuvre when facing pressure from either side. Therefore, Modi's visit to China is not just a bilateral dialogue with China, but also part of his "all-encompassing diplomacy" strategy, aimed at maximising India's national interests and strategic influence by maintaining independent and pragmatic interactions with the US, Russia, and China.

“Even though significant, Modi's visit to China remained confined to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, he did not attend the Victory Day parade, in a way leaving room for future reconciliation with the US …. On the contrary, just before the visit, India joined forces with countries such as Japan, Vietnam, and the Philippines to balance China's influence and reiterated its commitment to the “Quadrilateral Security Dialogue”. On the other hand, trade imbalances and sensitive border issues continue to plague China-India relations. Any unexpected incident in China-India ties could easily reverse the progress made so far in bilateral relations,” noted Zhang Jiadong, Director of the Center for South Asian Studies and Professor of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University.

Although China sees through India's calculations (that is, to “use China to counter the US’ high-handedness), the former is still keen to capitalise on this opportunity to maximise its own interests. It is willing to extend an olive branch to India, as the stability of its southwestern border and the access to the Indian market remain crucial to the overall Sino-US game. Accordingly, China has been making overtures to India on multiple fronts, from restarting tourist visas to Chinese citizens, resuming direct flights between China and India, initiating new economic cooperation projects involving trade and investment, to reiterating the “One-China” policy and publicly accepting Taiwan as part of China. All these, while retaining its control of rare earth magnets, fertilisers, and tunnel boring machines, etc.

It is willing to extend an olive branch to India, as the stability of its southwestern border and the access to the Indian market remain crucial to the overall Sino-US game.

In fact, some Chinese observers think that even if China-India negotiations don’t come to fruition immediately, it will not matter as much, because for China, the primary concern is to ensure that India-US ties do not develop any further. In the context of intensifying Sino-US rivalry, the Chinese argue, any country that doesn't get along with the US is worth cultivating, more so if it is India.

To sum up, for now, the Chinese side appears somewhat relieved that China-India have finally managed to find some common ground, to set aside their differences and form a joint front to face the global geopolitical turmoil, triggered by Trump's tariffs. After all, in international relations, there are no eternal friends or enemies, only eternal interests.

Antara Ghosal Singh (ORF)
9 September 2025

 

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